AI agents in 2025: Why agentic commerce isn't ready for Black Friday yet

The discussion highlights significant advancements in AI models like Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Opus, improving efficiency and coding capabilities, while noting that agentic commerce is still in early stages and not yet ready to transform major shopping events like Black Friday 2025. The panel emphasizes the growing but often unseen role of AI agents in backend enterprise processes, the challenges of scaling agentic applications, and envisions a future of diverse, collaborative AI ecosystems rather than a single dominant player.

The discussion opens with an exploration of Anthropic’s newly released Claude 4.5 Opus model, highlighting its significant improvements in token efficiency and coding capabilities. Distinguished engineer Mihi Creetti praises the model for being 50% more efficient than its predecessor, making it both cost-effective and powerful for reasoning and coding tasks. The release comes amid a busy fall of major AI model launches, including Google’s Gemini 3 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT-5.1 Pro, with Anthropic’s latest model regaining a leading position in coding performance. The panel notes that these advancements are supported by increased hardware availability through partnerships with major cloud providers, enabling better price-performance ratios and broader enterprise adoption.

Turning to the topic of agentic commerce and its readiness for Black Friday 2025, the panelists express skepticism about a breakout moment this year. While foundational components like agentic browsers and retailer partnerships are emerging, they remain in early stages and largely limited to the U.S. market. Chris Haye and Lauren McHugh Oende emphasize that although AI-assisted product research and automated checkout processes are improving, they are not yet transformative enough to disrupt major shopping events. They also point out that current AI models struggle with nuanced e-commerce needs such as specific product attributes and complex workflows, suggesting that more specialized training and workflow design are needed to enhance agentic commerce experiences.

Vulmar Ulleig offers a contrasting perspective by highlighting the significant but less visible role of agents in backend enterprise processes, particularly in handling returns, which constitute a substantial portion of e-commerce transactions. He argues that while consumer-facing agentic applications may seem underwhelming, agents are already optimizing labor-intensive backend workflows for large retailers, making returns easier and more efficient. This split between the public perception of agents and their enterprise utility underscores the complexity of agent adoption, where much of the impactful work happens behind the scenes rather than in direct consumer interactions.

The conversation then shifts to the developer ecosystem and the challenges of scaling agentic applications beyond prototypes. Lauren McHugh Oende describes the current landscape as vibrant for experimentation, with numerous no-code and pro-code tools available, but notes that deploying and hosting agents at scale remains complex and resource-intensive. The panel agrees that lowering barriers through better orchestration, planning modules, and user-friendly interfaces—potentially enabling natural language descriptions to create agents—will be crucial for mass adoption. Chris Haye adds that robust frameworks to keep agents on task and prevent them from going off the rails are essential for production readiness, highlighting the need for integrated planning and execution systems.

In closing, the panel reflects on the broader future of agentic AI, rejecting the notion of a single winner in the space. Chris Haye envisions an infinite game where multiple players contribute to a diverse and creator-driven ecosystem, breaking up the dominance of large Web 2 companies. The future, he suggests, lies in composition—combining models, data, brands, and tools to create personalized and innovative products. The panelists agree that while frontier models currently dominate, cost-effective, specialized planning models and pervasive AI applications across devices will drive widespread adoption. Ultimately, the agentic AI landscape is expected to evolve into a vibrant marketplace with many contributors rather than a winner-takes-all scenario.