Don’t Outsource the AGI Cluster to Middle East Dictatorships – Leopold Aschenbrenner

The speaker advocates for keeping AGI clusters in the United States rather than outsourcing to Middle Eastern dictatorships due to national security risks, highlighting concerns about data exfiltration and potential alliances with countries like China. They propose leveraging natural gas resources or pursuing green energy mega projects in the US to establish AGI clusters, emphasizing the need for a deregulatory agenda and prioritizing national interest and security over climate commitments.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of keeping AGI clusters in the United States rather than outsourcing them to Middle Eastern dictatorships. They raise concerns about national security risks associated with placing such clusters in authoritarian regimes, highlighting the potential for data exfiltration, compute seizure, and implicit leverage. The speaker argues that allowing such regimes a seat at the AGI table poses significant risks, especially if they form alliances with countries like China. They express suspicion towards the idea that if the US doesn’t collaborate with these dictatorships, they will turn to China, citing past instances of potential bidding wars involving AGI technology.

Moreover, the speaker questions the motivations behind companies seeking to establish AGI clusters in the Middle East, suggesting that it may be driven by factors such as easy money, perceived impossibility of doing so in the US, or a belief that only autocracies can efficiently mobilize resources for such projects. They draw parallels to historical system competitions, like the Cold War era, where industrial capacity and efficiency were key factors in determining success. The speaker cautions against betting against the US and the liberal order, asserting that the country has the capability to host AGI clusters successfully.

In exploring potential paths for establishing AGI clusters in the US, the speaker outlines two options: leveraging natural gas resources or pursuing green energy mega projects. They note the challenges associated with each path, such as climate commitments hindering natural gas usage and regulatory hurdles for green energy initiatives. The speaker advocates for a broad deregulatory agenda to facilitate the implementation of these projects efficiently. They stress the need for national interest and security to take precedence over climate commitments in this context.

In conclusion, the speaker believes that hosting AGI clusters in the US is feasible but requires a concerted effort to address regulatory barriers and energy challenges. They highlight the importance of maintaining control over AGI technology within democratic and allied nations to mitigate security risks and prevent potential adversaries from gaining undue influence in the field. The speaker urges a strategic approach to developing AGI capabilities domestically, emphasizing the need for collaboration between government, private sector, and energy stakeholders to ensure the US remains a leader in this critical technology domain.