The video discusses research from TR Eval’s lab indicating that AI capabilities are doubling approximately every seven months, with the latest model, Set 3.7, able to handle tasks for up to an hour, compared to GPT-4’s 4 to 6 minutes. It highlights the varying success rates of AI based on task duration, showing significant advancements in AI performance and autonomy over time.
The video discusses a new finding from TR Eval’s research lab regarding the capabilities of AI systems, specifically highlighting a trend similar to Moore’s Law. This new observation indicates that the length of tasks that AI can successfully complete is doubling approximately every seven months. The video presents data showing that while GPT-4 could handle tasks lasting around 4 to 6 minutes, the latest model, Set 3.7, can now manage tasks for up to an hour, showcasing significant advancements in AI task performance over time.
To analyze this progression, the researchers compared the performance of skilled humans and AI systems on various tasks under similar conditions. They measured how long it took humans to complete these tasks and then assessed the success rates of AI based on the time taken by humans. The study revealed that while humans might fail a task in one hour, they could succeed if given two or three hours, a pattern that also applies to AI agents. This comparison allowed the researchers to create a predictive curve that characterizes AI capabilities based on task length.
The video highlights a specific metric: the task length at which an AI model achieves a 50% success rate. For instance, Set 3.7 has a 50% success rate for tasks lasting one hour, and it performs even better for shorter tasks, achieving nearly 80% success for 15-minute tasks. However, for longer tasks, such as those taking 16 hours, the success rate drops to around 10%. This data illustrates the varying levels of AI effectiveness depending on task duration.
An important aspect of the research is the exponential growth observed in the 50% task completion time horizon across different AI systems. The video presents a chart that tracks this growth, showing that as AI models evolve, their ability to handle longer tasks improves significantly. For example, GPT-4 is positioned at around 2023, while Set 3.7 follows a steep exponential curve, indicating rapid advancements in AI autonomy and task management capabilities.
Finally, the video concludes with a promotional segment about the creator’s Patreon AI community, inviting viewers to join for live coding meetings and access to a comprehensive coding course. This community aims to help individuals learn how to code with AI assistance, further emphasizing the growing interest and relevance of AI in various fields.