In the video, Dan Ives discusses Nvidia’s recent stock decline and challenges, particularly its exposure to the Chinese market and slowing customer orders, suggesting a potential further drop to a buying range of $80 to $90. He also critiques Apple’s investment strategy amidst trade tensions, indicating that a price below $170 would be a strong buying signal, while emphasizing the need for caution in the current volatile market.
In the video, Dan Ives discusses the recent decline in Nvidia’s stock price, which has dropped approximately 35% from its recent highs and is down about 20% for the year. Despite a strong performance last year, where Nvidia saw an 80% increase, the current consensus for earnings and sales growth for the fiscal year 2026 is around 57%. Ives notes that the stock is trading at 23.5 times earnings and 13 times sales, with expectations that numbers could decrease by 10-12%. He emphasizes that many analysts believe the current estimates might still be too optimistic, especially in light of recent results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).
Ives highlights the challenges Nvidia faces, particularly regarding its exposure to the Chinese market, which accounted for 13% of its sales last year. He mentions that the company’s customers are slowing down their orders, which could further impact Nvidia’s performance. The stock’s high intraday price in January was $153, but it is currently trading around $108, with a potential low of $76 in April 2024. Ives suggests that the stock could decline further, with a target range of $80 to $90 being a significant buying opportunity.
Shifting focus to Apple, Ives critiques the company’s strategy, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions and tariffs. He points out that Apple has committed to spending $500 billion over the next four years, but he questions the rationale behind this investment given the rising costs of computing. Ives believes that Apple lacks a clear strategy beyond its current product offerings, which he describes as uninspired. He notes that Apple is trading at around 26 times earnings, and he discusses the implications of potential earnings cuts on the stock’s valuation.
Ives also draws parallels between Apple and Tesla, suggesting that both companies are significantly affected by nationalistic trends and trade wars. He believes that Apple and Tesla are at the forefront of these tensions, with their respective competitors in China, BYD and Huawei, posing significant threats. The discussion highlights the evolutionary nature of Apple and Tesla’s products compared to the revolutionary advancements made by their Chinese counterparts.
Finally, Ives provides insights into potential price levels for both Nvidia and Apple, suggesting that investors should be cautious and look for specific entry points. For Apple, he indicates that a price below $170 would be a strong buying signal, while for Nvidia, he sees $80 to $90 as a critical range. He emphasizes the importance of identifying these levels in a volatile market, as they could represent significant buying opportunities for long-term investors. Overall, Ives presents a cautious outlook on both companies, urging investors to remain vigilant amid changing market conditions.