Steve Weiss has shifted from a defensive to a more aggressive market stance, buying back stocks like Amazon and Nvidia after previously selling them, while maintaining core long-term holdings. He highlights recent market strength driven by AI and tech sector growth, but remains cautious about geopolitical and policy risks, emphasizing strategic trading and careful valuation assessment.
In the video, Steve Weiss discusses his recent shift from a defensive market stance to a more offensive approach, highlighting his decision to buy back Amazon and Nvidia after previously selling them in late April. He emphasizes that his trades are based on market opportunities, and he has been able to capitalize on the recent rally by selling at highs and re-entering positions near their lows. Weiss clarifies that he has maintained core holdings in companies like Meta, Microsoft, Leidos, Taiwan Semi, and Netflix, which he has added to during this period, indicating a balanced approach between trading and long-term investing.
Weiss notes that the market environment has changed, with a significant reduction in concerns over tariffs initiated by Trump, now down to a base case of around 10%. He stresses the importance of remaining cautious due to ongoing uncertainties about government policies. The market’s recent strength, particularly in Nvidia, is attributed to its remarkable recovery, surpassing its 200-day moving average and reaching a market cap larger than Apple. The rally is seen as driven by positive news, including Middle Eastern investments and strong AI-related growth prospects.
The discussion then shifts to the semiconductor sector, with a focus on Nvidia and AMD. Nvidia’s stock has rebounded significantly, driven by its leadership in AI and data center technology, despite concerns over export controls and geopolitical tensions. AMD has also seen a rally, supported by better-than-expected earnings, a buyback program, and hopes for a more favorable trade environment. Weiss and other analysts highlight the importance of upcoming earnings reports from key players like Applied Materials, which could further influence sector sentiment.
The conversation also covers the broader tech landscape, particularly Microsoft and Amazon. Microsoft has shown a strong recovery, with its stock approaching new all-time highs, reflecting a reversal of bearish sentiment earlier in the year. Weiss suggests that valuations for some tech giants are now stretched, and the market may be due for a correction after a period of excessive multiples driven by short covering. Regarding Amazon, Weiss remains cautiously optimistic, citing strong retail performance and AWS growth, but he expresses concerns about enterprise cloud spending and the impact of tariffs, indicating that Amazon is not a core long-term position for him at this time.
Overall, the video presents a nuanced view of the current market, emphasizing opportunities in semiconductors and tech stocks amid a cautiously optimistic outlook. Weiss advocates for strategic trading based on market signals and upcoming earnings, while maintaining a watchful eye on geopolitical and policy risks. The discussion underscores the importance of balancing short-term tactical moves with long-term investment considerations in a volatile and evolving environment.