Will we get UBI before AGI?

The video discusses the potential implementation of Universal Basic Income (UBI) before the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), citing ongoing UBI trials in various locations across America and other nations. David Shapiro highlights the societal benefits and challenges of UBI, viewing it as a response to economic changes and potential future challenges posed by advancing technology, while acknowledging that UBI alone may not fully address all issues related to job displacement and wealth inequality.

In the video, David Shapiro discusses the slowing down of artificial intelligence progress due to increasing costs of deployment. He mentions a study from Stanford University indicating that rising costs could lead to a slowdown in AI progress as people may invest less or take longer to acquire capital. Despite this, Shapiro predicts that some form of Universal Basic Income (UBI) will likely be implemented long before Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is developed.

Shapiro notes that currently, around 20 cities across America are experimenting with UBI trials, both publicly and privately funded. These trials are not limited to progressive states like California, but are being conducted in various locations across the country and even in other nations. The implementation of UBI is seen as an interesting social experiment of significant scale, with potential benefits such as raising employment rates, reducing ER visits, homelessness, and increasing graduation rates.

The discussion then delves into the historical context of economic changes, particularly focusing on the narrowing gap between labor supply and demand over recent decades. Shapiro explains that UBI is being considered as a response to economic compaction and the potential future challenges posed by capitalism and neoliberalism. UBI is viewed as a necessary measure to address wealth and income inequality, although it may not completely solve these issues.

Shapiro highlights the success of UBI experiments in various locations, emphasizing its potential to improve economic outcomes and social conditions. However, he acknowledges that UBI alone may not be sufficient to address all the challenges posed by advancing technology, particularly the potential impact of AI on job displacement and wealth concentration. The video concludes with a discussion on the differing views on UBI, with red states tending to ban UBI experiments due to ideological beliefs in limited government intervention, while progressive states see UBI as a potential solution to societal challenges.

Overall, Shapiro presents a nuanced perspective on the relationship between UBI, AI progress, and economic trends. He suggests that UBI trials are a proactive response to anticipated economic changes and challenges, emphasizing the need for ongoing experimentation and adaptation in the face of evolving technologies and social structures. The video provides insights into the complex interplay between economic policies, technological advancements, and societal values, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when discussing potential solutions such as UBI.